In a nation still nursing the wounds of its worst economic collapse, the idea of achieving “economic sovereignty” by 2028 sounds — at first — like a political fantasy. Yet that’s exactly the promise on the table. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has boldly declared that Sri Lanka will no longer need IMF bailouts or external lifelines by the end of his first term.
It’s an audacious target. But is it possible? And more importantly — are we building the foundation, or just painting the walls?
The Problem with Economic Buzzwords
Let’s be clear: “economic sovereignty” is a catchy term. It taps into national pride, post-colonial identity, and a public tired of watching global institutions dictate domestic decisions.
But slogans don’t pay debt. And economic recovery doesn’t happen by declaration.
To say Sri Lanka will be sovereign in just three years is like saying a patient discharged from ICU will be running marathons by the weekend. It’s possible — but only with intensive care, discipline, and zero relapses.
Sri Lanka’s Past: A Pattern of Borrow and Blame
We didn’t land in this crisis overnight. Years of reckless borrowing, political short-termism, and unchecked corruption hollowed out our economic base. Foreign debt skyrocketed, reserves vanished, and citizens queued for fuel, gas, and dignity.
The bailout from the IMF was never just about money. It was a life jacket — and a leash.
So now, when the President says this is the last IMF program we’ll ever need, it’s worth pausing. Are we building systems strong enough to survive the next storm, or just patching the boat with political hope?
What It Would Actually Take to Be Sovereign
If we’re serious about walking away from dependency, here’s what needs to happen — quickly, consistently, and without compromise:
- Slash the Waste
Sri Lanka’s public sector is overgrown, inefficient, and in some cases, actively harmful. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) drain billions in losses annually. Real sovereignty means saying no to political appointments, union pressure, and decades of patronage. That’s not a budget issue — that’s a courage issue.
- Stop Subsidizing Dysfunction
The shift to cost-reflective pricing — especially for electricity and fuel — is non-negotiable. But it must be paired with smart, targeted subsidies for the poor. Too often, we swing from freebies for all to burdening everyone equally. There is no sovereignty if your poorest citizens can’t afford to survive.
- Rebuild the Engine: SMEs
Over 90% of Sri Lanka’s businesses are small and medium enterprises. Most were wiped out in the collapse — not from mismanagement, but from policy shock. Revival here isn’t about aid. It’s about restoring credit, cutting red tape, and letting businesses breathe again.
- Win Investor Trust — and Keep It
Talk is cheap in Colombo, but global capital watches actions. Investors don’t just want incentives. They want consistency. If we keep rewriting rules every election cycle, no one will bet on Sri Lanka long-term. Economic independence demands credibility — not gimmicks.
The Political Time Bomb
None of this will be easy. Some reforms will hurt. Electricity bills will rise. Jobs may be lost in the public sector. That’s the price of sovereignty — and the risk.
Because Sri Lanka’s political cycle is short, but its economic challenges are long. Will a leader stick to hard reforms when protests start? Or will they do what politicians often do — backtrack, blame the IMF, and punt problems to the next government?
If this economic revival is real, it must survive not just a news cycle, but a full term. Possibly two.
2028: A Real Target or Re-election Rhetoric?
Let’s be fair: having a date on the wall can drive momentum. Saying “2028” forces urgency. It gives officials a benchmark. And it gives the public something to measure.
But timelines without transparency are useless.
If we’re really heading for sovereignty, then every quarter should come with an update: How many SOEs restructured? How much debt repaid? What percentage of energy is now market-priced? How many SMEs restarted?
Without metrics, the 2028 goal risks becoming just another broken promise in Sri Lanka’s long history of “plans without outcomes.”
What’s at Stake
Sri Lanka doesn’t just need a rebound. It needs a reset. The world is watching — not because we’re unique, but because we are a case study in what happens when politics overshadows economics for too long.
If this government can actually break the cycle, it won’t just win votes. It will earn something far rarer in this country: public trust.
And if we fail?
Then the idea of sovereignty — political or economic — will remain what it has often been: a word we love to say, but never build toward.
Final Word: Possible, But Only With Pain
Economic sovereignty by 2028 is possible — but only if we accept that real independence requires real reform.
It’s not about getting off IMF support. It’s about building a system strong enough that we never need them again.
That means smart governance, painful restructuring, disciplined spending, and above all, political maturity.
If Sri Lanka can do that, it will earn not just sovereignty, but self-respect.
And that might be the most valuable currency of all.
