Summary:
- For OpenAI, facing projected $14 billion losses in 2026 and insatiable compute needs, this was a lifeline.
- Why Proceeding (or Adapting) the Deal Could Benefit OpenAI and NVIDIA?
- The $100 billion NVIDIA-OpenAI deal hasn’t collapsed, it’s a non-binding intent facing realistic reassessment, with Jensen Huang vocally recommitting as of 01/02/2026.
A viral X post from January 31, 2026, featuring a shocked Sam Altman meme alongside Wall Street Journal headlines, declared the dramatic collapse of a rumored $100 billion partnership between NVIDIA and OpenAI. The post, which garnered over 900,000 views, cited private criticisms from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang about OpenAI’s business discipline and competitive pressures from Google and Anthropic. But is this megadeal really over, or is the narrative overstated? Recent statements from Huang himself paint a different picture, suggesting ongoing commitment amid reports of delays.
Announced in September 2025 as a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MOU), the partnership aimed for NVIDIA to invest up to $100 billion in building 10 gigawatts of AI data centers for OpenAI, powered by next-gen chips like Vera Rubin. This would secure massive compute for OpenAI’s ambitious models while deepening NVIDIA’s dominance in AI infrastructure. However, a January 30 WSJ report claimed the deal had “stalled,” with internal doubts at NVIDIA and Huang privately emphasizing its non-binding nature.
Yet, on February 1, Huang publicly pushed back, calling reports of unhappiness “nonsense” and reaffirming a “huge” investment in OpenAI one potentially the largest yet. Speaking in Taipei, he expressed strong belief in the company’s work. This analysis verifies the claims, explores the latest developments, and weighs the implications for OpenAI’s future in a hyper-competitive AI landscape.
Also in Explained | Why Did Apple Choose Google Over OpenAI for Siri’s Massive AI Upgrade?
A Landmark Intent, Not a Locked Deal
The partnership traces back to September 2025, when NVIDIA and OpenAI announced plans for NVIDIA to deploy massive computing power progressively, tied to investments scaling with infrastructure buildout. It wasn’t a firm contract but a letter of intent, allowing flexibility. For OpenAI, facing projected $14 billion losses in 2026 and insatiable compute needs, this was a lifeline. For NVIDIA, it cemented its role as the AI picks-and-shovels provider.
The viral post amplified WSJ details: Huang allegedly criticized Sam Altman’s approach as lacking discipline, worried about OpenAI being outpaced by Google’s Gemini (which recently powered Apple’s Siri upgrade) and Anthropic’s Claude. OpenAI’s reported “code red” in response to Gemini 3 underscores these pressures, with slowing ChatGPT growth adding urgency.
But Huang’s latest comments directly counter the collapse narrative: “We will invest a great deal of money. I believe in OpenAI; the work they do is incredible.” No outright cancellation just recalibration of a non-binding plan.
Recent Developments – Denials, Reaffirmations, and Broader Context
As of February 1, 2026:
- Huang denied private discontent, labeling it unfounded.
- NVIDIA continues close collaboration, with OpenAI relying heavily on its GPUs (via Microsoft Azure and direct supplies).
- OpenAI is pursuing broader funding, reportedly up to $100 billion valuation talks involving multiple investors like Microsoft, Amazon, and potentially NVIDIA in smaller rounds.
- No official statement from OpenAI or NVIDIA confirming termination; instead, emphasis on ongoing partnership.
This isn’t a full collapse but a pause amid scrutiny. The deal’s scale equivalent to vendor financing drew dot-com era comparisons, raising caution at NVIDIA. OpenAI’s burn rate and competition intensify the stakes.
Why Proceeding (or Adapting) the Deal Could Benefit OpenAI and NVIDIA?
A solidified or revised partnership offers significant upsides.
- Secured Compute at Scale
OpenAI’s path to AGI demands exawatts eventually; 10GW from NVIDIA would provide dedicated, cutting-edge infrastructure, reducing reliance on scattered cloud providers.
- Financial Breathing Room
Progressive investment tied to deployment minimizes upfront risk for NVIDIA while giving OpenAI capital without heavy dilution.
- Strategic Alignment
NVIDIA gains a flagship customer showcasing its full stack (chips, systems, software), boosting enterprise sales. OpenAI gets preferential access amid global chip shortages.
- Competitive Moat
Against Google’s vertical integration (TPUs + Gemini) and Anthropic’s Amazon backing, this locks in NVIDIA’s ecosystem dominance.
- Innovation Acceleration
Custom data centers optimized for OpenAI’s models could yield breakthroughs, benefiting the broader AI field.
If adapted rather than abandoned, this remains a win-win for scaling frontier AI responsibly.
Challenges and Risks Highlighted by the Stalled Reports
The uncertainty exposes vulnerabilities.
- Funding Instability for OpenAI
Without this infusion, OpenAI’s massive losses force tougher fundraising terms or spending cuts, potentially delaying models like GPT-5 successors.
- Perceived Weakness
Public doubts (fueled by viral posts) erode confidence among investors, partners, and talent especially post-Apple’s Gemini pivot sidelining ChatGPT.
- Over-Reliance Risks
Tying fate to one supplier invites leverage issues; diversification (e.g., Oracle deals or in-house chips) becomes critical but costly.
- Market and Regulatory Scrutiny
Mega-deals attract antitrust eyes, especially with NVIDIA’s near-monopoly on AI GPUs.
- Execution Hurdles
Building 10GW requires enormous power, land, and time delays inevitable amid global energy constraints.
These factors explain NVIDIA’s caution: economics must align in a maturing AI market.
Not Collapsed, But a Wake-Up Call for OpenAI
The $100 billion NVIDIA-OpenAI deal hasn’t collapsed, it’s a non-binding intent facing realistic reassessment, with Jensen Huang vocally recommitting as of today. The viral X post, while based on legitimate WSJ reporting, sensationalizes “on ice” into outright failure, ignoring Huang’s denials and the partnership’s enduring foundation.
For OpenAI, this highlights mounting pressures: fierce competition, unsustainable burn, and the need for disciplined execution. Shifting to hardware (planned 2026 device with Jony Ive) and broader funding could mitigate risks. Positively, it pushes diversification beyond NVIDIA dependence.
NVIDIA emerges stronger, maintaining flexibility while dominating AI supply. The episode underscores AI’s capital-intensive reality no deal is guaranteed in this trillion-dollar race.
As OpenAI navigates 2026, watch for funding announcements and model releases. Turbulence yes, but the end? Far from it.
Also in Explained | OpenAI’s Pivot to Advertising in ChatGPT in 2026: Navigating Costs, AI War, and the Evolving AI Landscape
Is the $100 Billion NVIDIA-OpenAI Deal Truly Dead, or Just Facing Turbulence?
Summary:
A viral X post from January 31, 2026, featuring a shocked Sam Altman meme alongside Wall Street Journal headlines, declared the dramatic collapse of a rumored $100 billion partnership between NVIDIA and OpenAI. The post, which garnered over 900,000 views, cited private criticisms from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang about OpenAI’s business discipline and competitive pressures from Google and Anthropic. But is this megadeal really over, or is the narrative overstated? Recent statements from Huang himself paint a different picture, suggesting ongoing commitment amid reports of delays.
Announced in September 2025 as a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MOU), the partnership aimed for NVIDIA to invest up to $100 billion in building 10 gigawatts of AI data centers for OpenAI, powered by next-gen chips like Vera Rubin. This would secure massive compute for OpenAI’s ambitious models while deepening NVIDIA’s dominance in AI infrastructure. However, a January 30 WSJ report claimed the deal had “stalled,” with internal doubts at NVIDIA and Huang privately emphasizing its non-binding nature.
Yet, on February 1, Huang publicly pushed back, calling reports of unhappiness “nonsense” and reaffirming a “huge” investment in OpenAI one potentially the largest yet. Speaking in Taipei, he expressed strong belief in the company’s work. This analysis verifies the claims, explores the latest developments, and weighs the implications for OpenAI’s future in a hyper-competitive AI landscape.
Also in Explained | Why Did Apple Choose Google Over OpenAI for Siri’s Massive AI Upgrade?
A Landmark Intent, Not a Locked Deal
The partnership traces back to September 2025, when NVIDIA and OpenAI announced plans for NVIDIA to deploy massive computing power progressively, tied to investments scaling with infrastructure buildout. It wasn’t a firm contract but a letter of intent, allowing flexibility. For OpenAI, facing projected $14 billion losses in 2026 and insatiable compute needs, this was a lifeline. For NVIDIA, it cemented its role as the AI picks-and-shovels provider.
The viral post amplified WSJ details: Huang allegedly criticized Sam Altman’s approach as lacking discipline, worried about OpenAI being outpaced by Google’s Gemini (which recently powered Apple’s Siri upgrade) and Anthropic’s Claude. OpenAI’s reported “code red” in response to Gemini 3 underscores these pressures, with slowing ChatGPT growth adding urgency.
But Huang’s latest comments directly counter the collapse narrative: “We will invest a great deal of money. I believe in OpenAI; the work they do is incredible.” No outright cancellation just recalibration of a non-binding plan.
Recent Developments – Denials, Reaffirmations, and Broader Context
As of February 1, 2026:
This isn’t a full collapse but a pause amid scrutiny. The deal’s scale equivalent to vendor financing drew dot-com era comparisons, raising caution at NVIDIA. OpenAI’s burn rate and competition intensify the stakes.
Why Proceeding (or Adapting) the Deal Could Benefit OpenAI and NVIDIA?
A solidified or revised partnership offers significant upsides.
OpenAI’s path to AGI demands exawatts eventually; 10GW from NVIDIA would provide dedicated, cutting-edge infrastructure, reducing reliance on scattered cloud providers.
Progressive investment tied to deployment minimizes upfront risk for NVIDIA while giving OpenAI capital without heavy dilution.
NVIDIA gains a flagship customer showcasing its full stack (chips, systems, software), boosting enterprise sales. OpenAI gets preferential access amid global chip shortages.
Against Google’s vertical integration (TPUs + Gemini) and Anthropic’s Amazon backing, this locks in NVIDIA’s ecosystem dominance.
Custom data centers optimized for OpenAI’s models could yield breakthroughs, benefiting the broader AI field.
If adapted rather than abandoned, this remains a win-win for scaling frontier AI responsibly.
Challenges and Risks Highlighted by the Stalled Reports
The uncertainty exposes vulnerabilities.
Without this infusion, OpenAI’s massive losses force tougher fundraising terms or spending cuts, potentially delaying models like GPT-5 successors.
Public doubts (fueled by viral posts) erode confidence among investors, partners, and talent especially post-Apple’s Gemini pivot sidelining ChatGPT.
Tying fate to one supplier invites leverage issues; diversification (e.g., Oracle deals or in-house chips) becomes critical but costly.
Mega-deals attract antitrust eyes, especially with NVIDIA’s near-monopoly on AI GPUs.
Building 10GW requires enormous power, land, and time delays inevitable amid global energy constraints.
These factors explain NVIDIA’s caution: economics must align in a maturing AI market.
Not Collapsed, But a Wake-Up Call for OpenAI
The $100 billion NVIDIA-OpenAI deal hasn’t collapsed, it’s a non-binding intent facing realistic reassessment, with Jensen Huang vocally recommitting as of today. The viral X post, while based on legitimate WSJ reporting, sensationalizes “on ice” into outright failure, ignoring Huang’s denials and the partnership’s enduring foundation.
For OpenAI, this highlights mounting pressures: fierce competition, unsustainable burn, and the need for disciplined execution. Shifting to hardware (planned 2026 device with Jony Ive) and broader funding could mitigate risks. Positively, it pushes diversification beyond NVIDIA dependence.
NVIDIA emerges stronger, maintaining flexibility while dominating AI supply. The episode underscores AI’s capital-intensive reality no deal is guaranteed in this trillion-dollar race.
As OpenAI navigates 2026, watch for funding announcements and model releases. Turbulence yes, but the end? Far from it.
Also in Explained | OpenAI’s Pivot to Advertising in ChatGPT in 2026: Navigating Costs, AI War, and the Evolving AI Landscape
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